A new poll shows U.S. Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-Mo., is holding a narrow lead over likely Republican challenger Josh Hawley in Missouri’s nationally watched Senate race this year.
In the latest indication of the volatility of the race, McCaskill’s 2 percentage point lead (42-40) over Hawley in the new poll by Gravis Marketing comes less than a week after an Axios/Survey Monkey poll showed Hawley with an 8-point lead.
Gravis is a national polling firm that FiveThirtyEights’ pollster ratings gives a B- in demonstrated reliability (Survey Monkey gets a C-). The website reports that Gravis does has a history of modest bias — in favor of Republicans.
“This will be a very close race,” Gravis Managing Partner Doug Kaplan said in comments released with the poll.
He also noted, as others have: “The Senate might hinge on this race.”
Missouri this year has the potential to baffle pollsters, because it’s a former swing state that has become strongly Republican but with a populist edge that doesn’t work well for some GOP candidates.
Republican President Donald Trump, riding a populist message, won the state by almost 20 percentage points 2016. But on the same ballot, incumbent Sen. Roy Blunt, R-Mo., a top establishment Republican in Washington, held onto his seat by less than 3 points — an indication that many Missouri voters cast their votes for Trump in the presidential race, then voted for Democrat Jason Kander in the Senate race.
Within the details of the new poll are some concerning numbers for both McCaskill and Hawley.
McCaskill’s job approval rating is underwater, 42-43 percent. Hawley is less known but better liked, at 37-34 percent. But McCaskill has a 10-point lead among independents, who often are the deciding factor in close races.
Also possibly working in McCaskill’s favor is that Trump’s approval rating in Missouri has dropped after his first year in office, to a current 46-50 margin in the state.
The poll of 931 registered Missouri voters chosen randomly was conducted March 5 through March 7, and has a sampling error of plus or minus 3.2 percent. The survey was conducted using interactive voice responses and an online panel of cell phone users. The results are weighted by voting demographics.
Hawley isn’t yet the GOP nominee in Missouri, which holds its primaries Aug. 7, but he has been leading a group of lesser known Republican candidates in money and endorsements. Trump is scheduled to attend a St. Louis-area fundraiser for Hawley Wednesday.
ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH
An “online exclusive” is an article or story that does not run in the print edition of the Houston Herald. Typically 2-3 are posted online every Wednesday morning. It’s another feature designed for users who purchase full web access from the Herald.
Click here to subscribe for print, digital or both.