In September, Missouri saw record-setting lows, too much rain in some parts, not enough in others and it continued the nearly two-year trend of cooler than normal temperatures, according to Pat Guinan, University of Missouri Extension Commercial Agriculture Program climatologist.
“The first three weeks of September had lower than normal temperatures, while the last week had a warm spell,” Guinan said. “When you crunch the numbers, September is going to be about 1 degree below normal.”
On the morning of Sept. 13, temperatures dropped into the upper 30s across all of northern Missouri and parts of central Missouri. Guinan said both St. Joseph and Kansas City reported a record low of 37 degrees.
“It’s unusual for temperatures to drop into the 30s in the first half of September,” Guinan said. “Kansas City broke a long-standing record that went all the way back to 1890.”
Precipitation for the month was nearly normal at about 4 inches, Guinan said. But Missouri is a big state. Some regions had more rain while others had less.
Weather observers in Holt, Linn and Adair counties reported more than 10 inches of rain, Guinan said. Perry County had less than an inch.
On Sept. 1 and 2, unusually heavy rains, 3-6 inches, fell along a 20- to 30-mile-wide corridor that ran from Cooper County eastward through Boone, Callaway, Montgomery, Warren, Lincoln and St. Charles counties, Guinan said. In and around Columbia 5 to 6 inches of rain fell over a seven-hour period, causing flooding, closed roads and waterlogged basements.
“On Sept. 9 and 10 some localized areas in northern Missouri reported several inches of rain in just a few hours,” Guinan said. “In northern Holt County there was a report that 7 inches of rain fell in one hour. That’s a lot of water dumped in a short period time, and highly unusual.”
Guinan said he’s been hearing rumors of a cold and bitter winter this year. He says the Climate Prediction Center gives a 60-65 percent chance of an El Nino event. El Nino, a phenomenon where warmer than normal waters exist in the equatorial Pacific, can affect U.S. weather.
Guinan said El Nino winters generally translate to higher than normal temperatures across the northern U.S. and lower than normal temperatures across southern parts. El Nino could bring above-normal precipitation across the south and drier conditions across the Ohio River Valley.
“You notice I haven’t mentioned Missouri. The Climate Prediction Center predicts most of the state has equal chances of above, below and normal temperatures and precipitation,” Guinan said. “So stay tuned.”
Last year, Missouri saw record-setting low temperatures, but Guinan said you can’t use previous winters to predict the next one.
“Two winters ago it was above normal, the winter before that was one of our warmest winters on record,” he said. “You can go from one extreme to the other when you go from one winter to the next.”
So hope for a mild winter but have ice-melting and snow-shoveling equipment ready, just in case.
The Missouri Climate Center’s web address is http://climate.missouri.edu.